Avdiivka has fallen into Russian hands, marking a notable shift in the front of the conflict and setting the stage for the next phase of the war, marked by the Ukrainian forces’ retreat and Russian troops organizing for future assaults.
The city’s fall is especially concerning for Ukraine given the country’s low ammunition supplies and the increasing shortage of troops as Russia’s invasion enters its third year.
Ukrainian forces’ disadvantage is worsened by the flat, difficult terrain surrounding Avdiivka. Without natural defenses, Ukraine may be forced to cede more ground to fend off Russian advances.
As stated by Michael Kofman, Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the lack of a well-established secondary line for Ukraine to fall back to could be a determining factor in the conflict’s next phase.
Despite heavy casualties, Russian troops continue to put pressure on various parts of the frontline, focusing on cities like Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, and Robotyne.
Furthermore, military aid to Ukraine from Western allies has decreased, adding to the strain being placed on Ukrainian troops as they try to hold off Russian attacks.
Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s defense minister, acknowledged this strain, highlighting the need to build and reinforce fortifications to better defend against Russian forces.
U.S. officials believe that additional support could prevent further advances by Russian forces. However, in the absence of such aid, Russia is likely to capitalize on the fall of Avdiivka to continue its push into eastern Ukraine.
Avdiivka, once a stronghold for Ukrainian troops, has been overcome by Russian forces despite significant casualties and losses. The fall of the city demonstrates the challenges facing Ukrainian forces as they seek to defend against Russian aggression.
The depletion of one of Ukraine’s best units during the crisis highlights the growing problem of manpower shortages within Ukrainian ranks, further complicating the country’s defense strategy.
Though the toll of the ongoing war is significant, its full impact on the battlefield is yet to be determined.
Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting from Washington.